The outcome the Rugby World Cup final could come down to five key aspects of the game when New Zealand take on South Africa at the Stade de France on Saturday.
THE GAMBLE
Many thought the experiment of a bench of seven forwards and one back, a so-called “7-1 split”, was dead after South Africa lost to Ireland in the pool stage but the Springboks are taking a major risk in putting all their faith in forward power.
Their “bomb squad” made a massive impact in previous games against France and England in which they had a 5-3 split. But they obviously feel they need more forward power to overcome the All Blacks if it turns into an arm-wrestle in wet conditions.
THE KICKING GAME
South Africa coach Jacques Nienaber did highlight the kicking game as a key element when naming his team and while Manie Libbok has been good in open play over the last 12 months, picking Handre Pollard means there is more certainty around taking opportunities for early scoreboard pressure. The All Blacks have to be clever with their tactical kicking, especially if the game is played in wet conditions, as is expected to be the case, while their wingers and fullback will be tested by high kicks.
SCRUMS
If the game does down to the last quarter, scrummaging power could be key and Ox Nche’s performance in helping South Africa come from behind to beat England is still drawing rave reviews days after the destructive loosehead prop won key penalties for the Boks. But Kiwis coach Ian Foster says his team have a lot of confidence in all the set-piece areas. The Boks use the scrum as a key weapon to gain penalties and win territory or points with shots at goal.
LINEOUT MAUL
The All Blacks have shown a major improvement in their lineout defence since the Springboks crushed them at Twickenham in the pre-World Cup warm-up test. South Africa have not been as devastating at this tournament from the lineout maul as they might have hoped, wasting several chances in the games against Ireland and France through handling errors and being expertly held up by England in the semi-finals.
COUNTER ATTACK
New Zealand have proven devastating from unstructured counter-attacks, using their national instinct to seize opportunities, especially from turnovers at ruck time. The speed of ball through the hands has won so many tests against South Africa and will surely be their strong point again. But with rapid wingers themselves in Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse, the Boks are also primed to attack from turnover ball as they did in the quarter-final against France.
Paris quiet ahead of the Rugby World Cup finals:
