The sixth general elections have been billed as possibly the most hotly contested since 1994. With service delivery in the spotlight over the last few months, the Wednesday May 08 election is according to the Ipsos Final Election Outlook, the most important post-1994 election in the country’s history.
The final results outlook from Ipsos suggests that only 33% of registered South African voters believe that the country is going in the right direction at this stage. More than 52% believe the country is going in the wrong direction.
Based on possible turnout the Ipsos Outlook suggests that if previous elections are anything to go by, it is unrealistic to anticipate that all registered voters will turn out to vote on Election Day.
When voters were asked about their likelihood or desire to vote on polling day, more than 80% of them were of the opinion that they would turn out to vote on Election Day. Be that as it may, this assertion is not realistic, given past turnout patterns.
Ipsos suggests that a low voter turnout scenario will result if about 60% of registered voters turn out to vote, a medium voter turnout scenario will result if about 71% or 75% of registered voters turn out to vote, and a high voter turnout scenario will result from a turnout of 80% of registered voters.
To get a clearer understanding of voter behavior, Ipsos asked possible voters their views on political parties and direct questions about what influences their political party choices.
Below is a summary of party support on different turnout scenarios:
According to Ipsos, in spite of the electorate’s unhappiness about service delivery and other issues, it is unlikely that the low turnout figure of the local government elections of August 2016 will be repeated.