Author: Collette Schulz-Herzenberg
Polls suggest a clear rise in independents, or ‘floating voters’, in South Africa. These voters are not partisans – or have simply stopped being partisan over time – and do not feel close to a particular political party.
It is difficult to predict whether these people have voted, and for which party, since they didn’t hold a compelling party loyalty. Yet, this largely unpredictable block of voters can transform the political scene and are the key to future electoral realignments.
While independents are harder to mobilize, they are more open to persuasion and shifting their vote across parties. These voters were also likely to have been late deciders, making a decision about which party to support towards the end of the election campaign.
They are most likely to be swayed by the state of the economy, key policy issues, party leaders and incumbent job approval. The populist appeals of anti-system or ethno-nationalist parties have also found traction in electorates with declining partisanship. The tone and rhetoric of the election campaign will also be pivotal in persuading millions of non-partisan voters.
