Author:  Nkoe A Montja

With the current reading of the 2019 elections results, it seems a few parties and a few political leaders are in for a surprise.

VF Plus, a party vaguely spoken about in the pre-election debate, is showing to be one of the smaller parties that could emerge into the top 5. With around 29% votes counted, the party finds itself firmly at the 4th position with 2.6% a mark they couldn’t reach in the 2014 elections. Could this be as a result of land redistribution without compensation?

The leadership score again looks as though it is the end of the road to parliament for other prominent parties such as APC, PAC, AZAPO, COPE and UDM. Not that there were high expectation from them, but at least a seat in parliament would keep them alive for the next elections. AGANG is nowhere to be found.

Moreover, it looks like GOOD, a breakout from the DA, has managed to steal a few votes and could see itself heading to parliament.  At the moment the party is just below 1% and could be on a rise as the counting continues. On the other hand, IFP is still holding on and could see itself as the only old party remaining with the exit of PAC and the likes. The party is doing pretty well in KZN, its home base.

The top 3 parties are dealing with their own issues. The ANC is comfortably ahead, but it remains to be seen if the party could go beyond the 60% mark. Or will it fall between 55% and 58% as predicted by some voting polls. The positioning of the DA and EFF looks to remain at 2 and 3 respectively, with the EFF increasing its mark and the DA set to decline as the counting of townships and rural areas are coming through.

And at provincial level in Gauteng, are we in for coalition government or is the ANC in for a surprise wakeup call?

*Nkoe A Montja is a researcher and analyst at Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection.