By: Collette Schulz-Herzenberg
In the months before the 2019 elections, polls predicted a low voter turnout. Yet, Ipsos recently suggested that turnout will not be as low as expected. Both scenarios are possible.
One the one hand, a growing segment of the South African electorate do not identify with any political party. Partisanship binds people to a preferred party and mobilises them to turnout to cast a vote. When these ties weaken so does partisan-centered voting.
Non-partisans are far less likely to vote than partisans. With less motivation to cast a ballot, their large, and increasing numbers in the South African electorate may well cause voter turnout to decline.
On the other hand, the 2019 election is a ‘high-stakes’ election, one that will ultimately decide a new policy direction for South Africa, and one that marks a crucial turning point for governance.
High-stakes elections increase voter interest and encourage turnout at higher rates. Moreover, the 2019 election will be tightly contested, nationally, and in key provinces such as Gauteng and the Western Cape. Competitive races encourage higher turnout because voters realize their votes will make a decisive difference.
