The decision of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger to exit West Africa’s regional bloc ECOWAS could hinder the bloc’s economic growth, Moody’s ratings agency said on Wednesday.
It would be much more detrimental if they also decided to leave the West African Economic and Monetary Union, though that was not expected, the agency added.
The move to withdraw from the 15-member ECOWAS could yet take time to implement, opening a door for negotiations.
But, if carried through, it is set to disrupt the region’s trade and services flows, worth nearly $150 billion a year.
It also raises questions over millions of nationals from the three poor and landlocked nations who settled in neighbouring states as the BLOC allows visa-free travel and the right to work.
Ivory Coast alone is home to more than 5 million people from Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.
Niger shares 1 500km of border with Nigeria and 80% of its trade is done with its richer neighbour, said Seidik Abba, president of the Paris-based CIRES think tank.
Ghana, Togo and Benin also have a big diaspora from Niger.
“If they decide to go ahead and leave, it will become a very big problem, economically and politically, and the stakes are the highest for the people from these three countries,” he said.
More than a dozen analysts and African diplomats consulted by Reuters agreed the trio’s stance on ECOWAS underscored tumult across a region where armies have struggled to contain Islamist militants since seizing power in several countries.
Meanwhile, Russia has been extending its influence at the expense of former colonial power France, regional heavyweight Nigeria and the United States.
Earlier this month, Russia and Niger, ruled by a junta since a coup last year, agreed to develop military ties. Russian military personnel flew into Burkina Faso’s capital Ouagadougou last week to ensure the safety of the country’s military leader. Russia’s Wagner mercenary group also has 1,000 fighters in Mali.
The three military-ruled countries jointly announced their departure on Sunday, accusing ECOWAS of abandoning its founding ideals and falling under the influence of foreign powers.
They said the BLOC had offered little support against insurgencies that have killed thousands and displaced over 2 million.
