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The complexities of Afcon 2015

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A lot has been about Caf’s decision to move to Africa Cup of Nations to odd-numbered years. Some blamed the tournament held a few months before the World Cup for African teams’ poor performance at the world’s biggest soccer extravaganza. Whether those suggestions held any water, the truth is it’s more complex than that and more issue come up as we go into the Afcon 2015.
This is the first time that the Afcon is played six months after the final of the FIFA World Cup.

It is important also to note that the last round of qualifiers was played only three months (September, October and November) with double fixtures in the three FIFA weeks.

This Afcon is played in the same year as the continental Youth and Junior Championships (and the respective FOFA Competitions). This has a huge impact in the inclusion/promotion of young players into the senior teams. In the past, players that would have shown progress in the Youth Championships would have been considered for the subsequent Afcon. This time the next Afcon, will be two years away, which is a serious blow on the development continuity of such players.

Another huge factor going into this tournament is that most organised countries are at the early stage of the cycle (the FIFA World Cup cycle) – only six months into the cycle. We expect that most teams are at the exploratory phase and the success of teams in Equatorial Guinea could be measured more in terms of the progress that the selected team (and their coaches) is making as a team for the future rather than actually winning the Cup.

The advantage, however, is that the 2017 one will be a different game altogether as most teams would be much more matured and ready to finish the qualifications for the World Cup, which will take place the following year. Bafana Bafana is one such example.

Moving on, as one looks at the four groups; one cannot help, but accept the dominance of the Western part of the continent. There are no less than 10 in all and the rest share the remaining spots. In this context and given their dominance in the past, it will not be unexpected to see one of them take the cup. In 2013, the final was contested by two nations from the very same region, Burkina Faso and Nigeria.

While it is always expected of the host to progress to the next round, this time around chances of hosts Equatorial Guinea progressing beyond the first round look slim. Their preparations would have been very haphazard given that in the three months that the other fifteen were involved in the qualifiers, the hosts were already eliminated, through disqualification, from the competition. They only came back into the competition by default after Morocco was stripped of the rights to host the competition.

One would hope that this Afcon would not just be African only by virtue of it being played in Africa, nor by being played by Africans. We need to see the African game. The African game is an endangered species and is on the verge of being extinct. Any signs that this trend is being reversed would be the best news for our continent going forward.

The last time Nigeria did not show up as defending champions, South Africa won it

If the FIFA World Cup is of any significance, this Afcon should be won by the team that has most players from the same team in their domestic league.

In each group there seems to be more than two teams that that have the capacity to progress. This is either because the group is wide open as in Group A and B, or is very tight, like Group C and D.

In Group A, Burkina Faso and Gabon stand a good chance, though Congo Brazzaville may spring a surprise.

In Group B, Cape Verde might again repeat the success they enjoyed in SA in 2012 and qualify for the second round. The second spot will be contested by Tunisia and Zambia with the former standing a better chance.

Group C will be very difficult. One would hope that Bafana Bafana make it to the next round. If history is anything to go by, Ghana and Algeria stand the best chance. Algeria, though with a young team, they have experienced the World Cup. This gives them a solid advantage over the other three.

Group D will be a dogfight as all the teams are from the same region – the west. While any one of the four can make it to the second round, the expectation is that Ivory Coast and Cameroon will be in the next round.

The last time the competition was held in Equatorial Guinea, co-hosting with Gabon, it was won by Zambia, a Cosafa member.

Again, the last time Nigeria did not show up as defending champions, South Africa won it. Could this be the sign that South Africa is poised for championship for the second time?

This question will be answered soon, suffice to say in the last competition, hosted here in SA in 2013, all the medals went to the west region of the continent.

Let the game begin, let the African game resurrect.

Zipho Dlangalala was a professional player for Amazulu FC (1987-1988) and Zulu Royals (1990). He’s also a former Safa Coaching Instructor, with a strong academic background having studied coaching in Brazil and Netherlands among other countries.

– By Zipho Dlangalala

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