Senegal’s presidential candidates faced a shortened race to election day on Thursday after the constitutional council confirmed the delayed vote would be held on March 24, kick-starting a competition that remains wide open.
Uncertainty over the date of the vote has gripped the West African country since early February, when the authorities’ thwarted bid to postpone the February 25 poll by 10 months provoked widespread protests and warnings of democratic backsliding.
Many hope the worst of the crisis is over after the council ruled on Wednesday that the vote must be held before President Macky Sall’s mandate expires on April 2, prompting him to schedule it for March 24 – a date the top court has now approved.
“Like all Senegalese people, today we feel relieved to have resolved this issue that was causing us a lot of divisions,” said doctor Mohamed Diop on a busy thoroughfare in the capital Dakar.
The new date leaves the 19 candidates little more than two weeks to canvas support. It also means for the first time campaigning will take place during the holy month of Ramadan, when many in the Muslim-majority country fast.
“Of course it’s going to be extremely challenging,” opposition candidate Anta Babacar told Reuters. “We have to be very genius and innovative and think of new ways to be able to touch the Senegalese people … respecting as well the period of Ramadan.”
The ruling Benno Bokk Yakaar (BBY) coalition’s candidate, Amadou Ba, sounded a confident note.
“From this evening onwards, I will be devoting myself fully to preparing for the presidential election … to ensure a victory in the first round,” he said in a statement late on Wednesday.
There are no public election polls in Senegal, but Ba’s presidential prospects are far from certain.
Even before the postponement dispute, some within the BBY coalition questioned the first-time candidate’s low profile with voters compared with seasoned rivals. Meanwhile the authorities’ push to delay the vote could have undermined BBY’s already shaky support.
The confirmation of the date has also reassured the debt market. Senegal’s international sovereign dollar bonds rose by more than 2 cents on Thursday with the 2048 bond hitting its highest level since early January, Tradeweb data showed.
With a record number of candidates in the race, the chances are high none of them will win more than 50% of the vote and avoid a second round head-to-head.
There could be more trouble for Ba if recent collaboration between some of the opposition to challenge the postponement translates into “the establishment of a united opposition front against the ruling coalition,” said Mucahid Durmaz, senior West Africa analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.
The recent political turmoil could also have played out in some candidates’ favour. An amnesty bill proposed by Sall to ease tensions and passed by parliament on Wednesday is likely to lead to the release from detention of Bassirou Faye, a candidate backed by popular opposition firebrand Ousmane Sonko.
“Faye will likely enjoy a boost in support. The party will utilise the crisis to convince voters that their criticism of the state of democracy and the ruling elite is substantiated,” Durmaz said.
