Qatar on Monday called on all parties in Tunisia’s political crisis to avoid escalation and move towards dialogue, the state-run Qatar News Agency said, after Tunisia’s president dismissed the government and froze parliament on Sunday.

“Qatar hopes that Tunisian parties will adopt the path of dialogue to overcome the crisis,” QNA cited a foreign ministry statement as saying.

Tunisia’s President Kais Saied ousted the government on Sunday in a move labelled as a coup by the country’s main parties.

Saied, who on Sunday dismissed Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and froze parliament, said on Monday he would also replace the defence and justice ministers.

Tunisian democracy is said to be facing its biggest test since the 2011 revolution following Saied’s move, which led to confrontations between his supporters and opponents. He has invoked emergency powers under Article 80 of the constitution to sack Mechichi and freeze parliament for 30 days, lift the immunity of parliament members and make himself prosecutor general.

The army has helped him by surrounding parliament and the main government palace, but the main parties in parliament including the moderate Islamist Ennahda have called his move a coup and say Article 80 does not allow his actions. These are some scenarios for how the coming days may unfold.

Street violence, confrontations

Supporters of the president — a political independent –and of Ennahda mobilise in the streets across Tunisia, leading to violent confrontations that could draw in security forces and herald an era of instability or prompt a military power grab.

Said appoints a new premier and restores parliament

Saied rapidly names a new prime minister to handle the  COVID-19 surge and a looming fiscal crisis. He returns powers to parliament after his 30-day freeze ends and allows normal procedures to resume. New parliamentary elections may follow.

Authoritarian control

Saied consolidates control over the levers of power and security apparatus, postponing or cancelling a return to the constitutional order and cracking down on the freedoms of speech and assembly won in the 2011 revolution.

Changes to constitution and new referendum, elections

Saied uses the crisis to push for what he has called his preferred constitutional settlement – a presidential system based on elections but with a smaller role for parliament. The changes are followed by a referendum on the constitution and new elections.

Dialogue and new political deal

Repeating the pattern of earlier crises after Tunisia’s 2011 revolution, the political opponents draw back from the brink and agree to seek a compromise through dialogue that includes other players such as the powerful labour union.