The United States (US) presidential election is the only international one, which is also to some degree followed in South Africa. It is not because South Africans are well-informed about it, but it is unavoidable for a number of reasons.
The US is still the biggest power in the world and therefore states are influenced by it, whether by choice or not. The other big powers, such as China or Russia, are influential but their elections are much more predictable and not the uncertain but decisive moment an open election is expected to be. But then it has to be said that the elections in other powerful states like Japan, Germany or the UK are also not attracting much South African attention. The same can be said of elections in most African states.
The American election is unique in the sense that it is one of the very few international elections in which South Africans take sides in it. Their general preconceived ideas are that the Democrats are better for African issues, while the Republicans speak to a different cultural base which includes the business communities and social conservatives. Some church movements in South Africa and the Solidarity/AfriForum group associate with them. Ironically, these assumptions are not necessarily watertight and Republican President George W. Bush, for example, maintained good relations with President Thabo Mbeki.
The USA is seen by many South Africans as the defining power of the West, especially since the Cold War period. It represents the free market philosophy, neo-liberalism, NATO, the Bretton Woods financial institutions, and a close partnership with Europe and Israel. The rest of the world define themselves in relation to these issues. The US is therefore either loved or hated, but it remains important to understand the implications of its election results.
The American results on November 5 will be dominated by the presidential election but on the same day, several other elections will also take place. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested. Also 34 of the 100 Senate seats. Within the 50 states, 13 state and territorial governors (similar to our premiers) will be elected. What are the implications of these other elections?
The presidential system in America maintains a strict separation of powers between the Executive (President) and the Legislature (Congress). It means that the President can be from one party but the majority in the House from another one. It is even possible that one party enjoys a majority in the House and another party in the Senate. It is very important for the President’s party to have a majority in the Senate because most important legislative decisions are finalised there. So far, the Democrats enjoyed a small majority in the Senate and therefore this election is very important for them. If it continues, it would complicate the situation for a Trump presidency.
The election campaign, which lasted more than a year for Donald Trump but much less in the case of Kamala Harris, has been a combination of policy issues and personalities. The so-called “rational choice voter” is one who is open to be convinced by the candidates about their personality qualities and policies. It assumes that such a voter can consider all the relevant factors and then take a rational decision. Party loyalties are then less relevant and voters can change their preferences in different elections. The majority of American voters are, however, not rational choice voters. Their political landscape has become deeply polarised and evenly split. It explains why the “swing states” (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin) are the deciding voting centres in this election. Only about 15% of the total number of eligible American voters are potentially rational choice voters and they are the ones who will decide the final outcome.
It does not suggest that policy issues are not relevant for this election. What it means is that most eligible voters have well-established opinions on many policy matters and therefore will not be swayed by the election campaigns. The most important issue is the economy and high inflation during the Biden administration, abortion, immigration, healthcare, climate change, education and protection of democracy. Foreign policy issues are generally not major election issues but this time the wars in the Ukraine and Middle East are prominent divisive matters.
It is noteworthy that Trump’s campaign issues are this time significantly different from his previous two campaigns. His first campaign could be reduced to his motto of “America First”, but now it is “Make America Great Again” (MAGA). The earlier campaigns laid the foundation for his “economic nationalism” against global trade. In principle, it remained the same for this campaign, but it is not yet clear how he would relate to China in particular, as well as Europe.
One aspect of the American election that is foreign to South Africans is the role of the electoral college in electing the President. The first step is that voters vote for the presidential candidate in all 50 states. Thereafter an electoral college is convened consisting of 538 electors. Based on the population size of each state in the 2020 census, each state receives more or less a proportional number of seats in the Electoral College. California, for example, has 54 seats, Texas 40, Florida 30, New York state 28 and so on. A presidential candidate requires 270 votes in order to become the president. This two-stage voting process means that the popular vote is not the decisive one. For us one of the implications is that opinion polls published almost on a weekly basis cannot be taken at face value.
Democracy requires that the outcome of elections be not very much predictable. An election should create the opportunity for a change of government or a transition, and therefore an element of instability should be there. But such instability can also have undemocratic consequences. One of them is that the losing side does not want to accept the election results. In 2020 it happened in the USA, is the current tight race posing a similar risk?
Dirk Kotze is a professor of politics and communication at the University of South Africa (Unisa)