Making sense of some of the important 2024 general election numbers

South Africa is technically 21 days away from voting in the country’s seventh national and provincial elections (NPE).

While most of the registered 27.7-million voters will cast their ballot on May 29 between 07h00 and 21h00, voting for overseas voters will take place over two days, on 17 and 18 May 2024.

The Electoral Commission of South Africa or IEC confirmed that 58 802 registered voters ‘out of country’ or outside of South Africa’s borders had registered to cast a ballot in these elections, equating to a mere 0.21% of all registered voters.

The top five places with the most ‘out of country’ registered voters are London 19 518 (33%), the Hague 5572 (9%), Canberra 2609 (4%), Dubai 2574 (4%) and Dublin 2341 (3.98%).

Conversely, capital cities N’Djamena (of Chad) and Nouakchott (of Mauritania) boast just a single registered voter each.

Special votes will be next, scheduled to take place on Monday and Tuesday, 27 and 28 May 2024 respectively between 09h00 and 17h00.

Registered voters versus Voting Age Population (VAP)

According to Stats SA’s numbers from the Census 2022 surveys, the voting age population currently numbers just above 39.7 million. This is a bloc aged 18 and over that can vote in national, provincial and local elections.

The certified voters’ roll for the 2024 NPE is approximately 12-million or 30% less than this number, just under 28-million.

This is a significant number that could have swayed any election.

In the 2014 and 2019 general elections, total cast ballots numbered between 11 and 10 million respectively, illustrating graphically the importance of the ‘missing’ voting age population bloc.

When looking at the provincial picture, Gauteng seems to be the biggest culprit in unregistered ‘voting age population’ voters (59%).

This is despite South Africa’s most populous province going into these elections with the highest number of registered voters, 6.5-million or 24%.

Young people are not registering

Alarmingly, the 18 – 29 age band is the single electoral bloc that persists not to register for elections.

Unlike other age demographics where there seems to be relative political interest, the 18 – 19 age group boasts the lowest number of registered voters, above 550 000 or 27.1% (of the potential 2-million plus that could have voted).

The same can be said for the 20 – 29 age category where some 9-million could have voted on May 29. By close of the voters’ roll deadline, only 4.4-million had registered, representing approximately half of this key electoral demographic.

Expect a lower voter turnout in the 2024 general elections

The 2019 election witnessed the lowest-ever voter turnout for a general election, 66%.

Just under a million voters chose not to turn up in the 2019 general election compared to 2014.

For the 2024 general elections, voters can now only vote at the voting station/ district where they are registered. Previously, registered voters could vote anywhere in the province, provided that they fill in the requisite forms.

However, this time around, if voters do not timeously apply to vote at another voting station where they are ordinarily resident, they will be turned away.

For me, this is a huge negative, considering voting levels are declining fast in elections.

One need only look at the patterns from the last 15 years, where voter national voter turnout hovered around 77% in 2009, only to dip to 66% by 2019.

While I understand the IEC’s commitment to running a smooth election, voter turnout should not be sacrificed on the altar of ensuring a logistical problem-free poll. This issue could have been handled differently, I feel.

What worsens this situation is that not sufficient voter education has been communicated on this matter.

And I can guarantee you, the IEC is in for a deluge of complaints come Election Day when hordes of voters will be turned away simply for not being registered in the voting district they choose to vote at.

Robben Island is not the smallest voting station

Despite the theory that Robben Island is the smallest voting district and media houses should therefore expect its results first on Election Day, there are literally hundreds of other voting districts with less than 100 registered voters.

Robben Island forms part of the Cape Town metro, ward 54 and currently boasts 165 registered voters. Its only voting station remains the John Craig Hall, situated on 37 Church Street.

But please see more details on the 21 voting districts with the lowest number of registered voters:

Dr. Ronesh Dhawraj is with the SABC News & Current Affairs division