It’s about the bodies

The crime statistics released earlier on Tuesday shows a complex scenario as far as security is concerned. While some categories of crime increased others decreased. On the whole the number of cases recorded by the SAPS declined suggesting that the security situation is improving.

However the complex movements, coupled to the fact that the biggest crime categories tend to the less severe offences, makes it difficult to get a sober overview of crime trends.

Finding a general trend is further complicated by the ever increasing population and changing crime reporting rates. These factors make the murder statistics particularly important. Murder is one of the few crimes not impacted by changing reporting rates.

Generally crime reporting rate depends on a range of issues including the severity of the offence, the cultural context, access to police stations, trust in the police and even whether or not the victim is insured. None of these factors affect the number of murders recorded making it a key bellwether and the murder trend is the most reliable indicator of the underlying crime trend.

If this is the case the latest crime statistics portray a bleak picture. The number of murders has now risen to over 20 000 – the largest number reported in the last 10 years.  This means that 35 of  every 100 000 South African was murdered in 2016/17 year.

The international average murder rate (according to the World Bank data) is 4 murders per 100 000 population. Burundi and Iran lie close to the average. South Africa’s murder rate is nine times higher than the world median.

Only four of the 172 countries in the World Bank database  have higher murder rates than South Africa. These are the Latin American countries of Jamaica (43), Venezuela (57), Honduras (64) and El Salvador (109).

Although the number of murders in South Africa is at a ten year high the murder rate is still lower than it was in 2008/2009. Since 2008/9 the number of people  has grown slightly faster than murders resulting in slightly lower rate in 2016/17 compared to 2008/9.

This said, the murder rate is substantially lower than it was in 1994/1995. In that year 65 of every 100 000 South Africans were murdered. That rate decline until it fell to 30 per 100 000 in 2011/12 before rising.

The murder rate presents the clearest indication of the general security situation. The picture painted by this statistic is one of constant deterioration since 2011/12. However the overall situation is still twice as good as it was at the dawn of the democratic era.