The United States (US)and Iran appear to be back on a familiar path, one marked by threats of military action, sudden diplomatic openings, and deep uncertainty over whether any breakthrough is actually within reach. President Donald Trump says negotiations with Iran are set to begin on Monday, after revealing over the weekend that he called off what he described as a massive military strike against Iran.
WATCH | The United States has launched another major wave of airstrikes against Iran, targeting dozens of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command centres, missile and drone facilities, and coastal defence sites. SABC News correspondent Sherwin Bryce-Pease has more. pic.twitter.com/V4HPJdTK1B
— SABC News (@SABCNews) July 30, 2026
Trump said Gulf allies urged him to give diplomacy one more chance, and claimed Tehran had signaled a willingness to discuss both its nuclear programme and the future of the Strait of Hormuz but within hours, Iran publicly contradicted the US President.
Iran is negotiating with neighbouring Oman focused on maritime issues linked to the Strait of Hormuz, but is unequivocal that no talks are happening with the United States and warned that no long-term solution would be found if US aggression persists.
“We currently do not have negotiations with America. The negotiations are with Oman and are focused on reaching an understanding over a path to ensure the security of shipping passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Our effort is to – at the first opportunity, with consultation and cooperation with Oman, determine a route, a route that will naturally be temporary. Based on that, we can provide the security of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz,” says ran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei.
President Trump earlier stating that he backed away from a major escalation that sought to bomb Iran into submission after talks with Gulf partners; just the latest example of a familiar pattern in his approach to Iran: issuing dramatic military threats before ultimately pulling back to allow diplomacy another chance.
“We had an attack that would been the biggest attack since World War II, and it would have been disastrous for them, and they didn’t want us to do it. And frankly, Saudi Arabia didn’t want it either. They thought that a deal is imminent. We’ll just see how it ends. We’re ready to go any time we want. Would I rather make a deal? I’m not looking to kill people. There’s people dying, a lot of people dying, and we don’t want that. So they asked us, Iran specifically, but the other three said we really, I asked them, I asked Saudi Arabia, the king, the crown prince … I said, ‘What would you rather do? Would you rather have us do this or not’. They said, ‘we would much prefer a deal as opposed to an attack’, because you don’t know where these attacks lead. I mean, will they be flooded with people pouring into their country and disaster? A lot of bad things can happen,” says Trump.
The United Nations Chief Antonio Guterres argued that the world could simply not afford any more war, pointing to upended energy markets, food and key fertilizer prices surging and supply chains buckling under the weigh of a conflict now in its sixth month.
The price of Brent crude oil continues to drop on the latest de-escalation, but the question is can this trajectory be maintained, with just one in three Americans in support of the war.
“The Iranians have weaponised geography and they have found a weapon that is much safer and more effective than the development of a nuclear weapon. And that is to turn the Strait of Hormuz into literally an ATM machine, but also to use it as a way to gain increased leverage with key Gulf states. And as a consequence, this is not a negotiating position, not a tactic on the part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It is a fundamental core requirement that once having deployed geography as a weapon. They want to be able to use it going forward,” says Senior Fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Aaron David Miller.
Miller says the US military could open the Strait, but to maintain such a move would require a major military operation, in addition to ground forces and major strikes deep into Iran.
“I don’t think the Trump administration wants that. So, this could be the new normal, although I suspect that’s not sustainable. The naval blockade could be reimposed, and Iran will begin to hurt economically, but then again, so will the international oil economy,” he adds.
Finding agreement on the Strait of Hormuz is now a precursor to broader negotiations as laid out in the June 18 Memorandum of Understanding. As the world watches to see the outcomes of Oman’s talks with Iran, diplomats say that if countries cannot find a way to restore stability through one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, the prospects for tackling far more contentious issues, such as Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief and regional security—remain remote with the potential of return to war an ever present danger.
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