Global economic growth will remain “resilient” this year after a stronger-than-expected 2023, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday, but work is needed to boost global growth rates above an anemic 3% range in the medium term.
IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack told a news briefing that the global economy appeared headed for a “soft landing” with inflation subsiding and labour markets resilient, but low-income countries could still fall further behind.
The IMF will present its updated World Economic Outlook (WEO) in South Africa on January 30.
The World Bank on Tuesday issued a gloomy 2024 outlook, forecasting that global GDP growth would slow for the third year in a row to 2.4%, which will leave poverty reduction goals at risk.
Kozack said dire predictions of recessions in many regions that were prevalent a year ago did not materialize in 2023.
“So we’ve had a relatively resilient global economy so far. We expect that resilience to continue into 2024,” Kozack said, noting that inflation was coming down.
But the news is “not all good” because recent and near-term growth of about 3% is lower than previous, pre-COVID global average growth rates of around 3.8%.
“So, we do have work to do to lift global growth, especially over the medium term,” Kozack said, adding that the situation pointed to the need for sound policies and reforms that could raise productivity.
Asked if the economic resilience in 2024 would spread beyond the United States, Kozack said there is a divergence of fortunes among countries and regions, with a risk that low-income countries could fall further behind.
“They (low-income countries) are having the hardest time recovering from a series of shocks, including the pandemic, the food and oil price shocks,” she said, adding that IMF work in 2024 will have a strong focus on helping its most vulnerable member countries.
