By Izak Minnaar: SABC Digital News
Of the 78 parties which contested the National and Provincial elections, only about 20 are expected to win seats when the IEC announces the final election results on Saturday afternoon – and only 14 will be represented in the National Assembly.
ANC candidates are expected to take about 486 of the total of 830 national and provincial seats, about 40 less than in the 2014 elections. The DA’s tally also shrinks from 180 to about 172 seats.
The EFF and the VF Plus are expected to gain the most seats across all ten elections: the EFF’s tally is expected to go up from 55 to 93, and the VF Plus is expected to get up to 21 seats, tripling its 2014 tally of seven seats. The IFP is also expected to increase its public representatives from 20 to 28.
The SABC’s preliminary seat calculations, based on the legally prescribed seat allocation formula, resulted in the following expected seat tallies for all ten elections:
In the National Assembly, the ANC and DA will lose some seats while the EFF and VF Plus will gain a significant number of seats. A number of new parties will make their debut in Parliament, including ATM and GOOD. It is uncertain if the parties with one seat reflected below will all make it to Parliament.
National Assembly (400 seats)
Seat predictions 2014 seats
| ANC
DA EFF IFP VF Plus ACDP UDM ATM GOOD NFP AIC COPE PAC AL JAMAAH AGANG APC |
230
84 44 14 10 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 – – |
249
89 25 10 4 3 4 – – 6 3 3 1 – 2 1 |
In Gauteng the ANC is expected to have one seat more than the combined opposition seats.
Gauteng (73 seats)
Seat predictions 2014 seats
| ANC
DA EFF VF Plus IFP ACDP |
37
20 11 3 1 1 |
40
23 8 1 1 – |
In the Western Cape, the DA is expected to win 24 and ANC 12 seats, with new parties possibly entering the legislature: GOOD, VF Plus and Al Jamaah.
Western Cape (42 seats)
Seat predictions 2014 seats
| DA
ANC EFF GOOD ACDP VF Plus AL JAMA-AH |
24
12 2 1 1 1 1 |
26
14 1 – 1 – – |
In KwaZulu-Natal, the ANC is expected to have a reduced majority and the IFP will take over from the DA as the official opposition. One of the new parties, the ATM, may get a seat.
KwaZulu-Natal (80 seats)
Seat predictions 2014 seats
| ANC
IFP DA EFF NFP MF ATM ACDP |
44
13 11 8 1 1 1 1 |
52
9 10 2 6 1 – – |
In Mpumalanga, it is predicted that the EFF will take over from the DA as official opposition, and the VF Plus will replace BRA with one seat.
Mpumalanga (30)
Seat predictions 2014 seats
| ANC
EFF DA VF Plus BRA |
22
4 3 1 – |
24
2 3 – 1 |
In the Eastern Cape, the balance of power will remain the same, with two small parties, COPE and AIC, possibly replaced by ATM and VF Plus.
Eastern Cape (63 seats)
Seat predictions 2014 seats
| ANC
DA EFF UDM ATM VF Plus Cope AIC |
44
10 5 2 1 1 – – |
45
10 2 4 – – 1 1 |
In the Free State and North West, the same parties and the same power balance will remain.
Free State (30 seats)
Seat predictions 2014 seats
| ANC
DA EFF VF Plus |
19
6 4 1 |
22
5 2 1 |
North West (33 seats)
Seat predictions 2014 seats
| ANC
EFF DA VF Plus |
21
6 4 2 |
23
5 4 1 |
In Limpopo and the Northern Cape the main parties performed the same as before, with the VF Plus replacing Cope, with one seat in each of the provinces.
Limpopo (49 seats)
Seat predictions 2014 seats
| ANC
EFF DA VF Plus Cope |
38
7 3 1 – |
39
6 3 – 1 |
Northern Cape (30)
Seat predictions 2014 seats
| ANC
DA EFF VF Plus Cope |
18
8 3 1 – |
20
7 2 – 1 |
