The United Nations World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has issued a warning that the developing El Niño event has increased the likelihood of above-average temperatures across much of the world.
The latest forecast from the WMO shows an ensemble of multiple climate models predicting an overwhelming likelihood of rainfall shifts across the world, with the whole African continent projected to be warmer for the August-t0-September 2026 season.
“El Niño is not just on our doorstep – it is inside the house and turning up the heat,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
“El Niño is strengthening – adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas,” he warned. The WMO says that the latest data shows a typical pattern of shifting rainfall patterns that happen during an El Niño event, such as drought conditions that happen in regions that include southern Africa.
“Wetter-than-normal conditions are expected across the Greater Horn of Africa; parts of Central Asia; Southern Europe; Western North America (south of 45°N); and Southeastern South America,” the WMO said in a 31 July statement. The WMO says that South Africa is in for an extra warm summer as high probabilities of above-average temperatures are centered over southern Africa and South America in the southern hemisphere.
Growing indicators of an impending strong El Niño could spell bad news for the African continent as the African Development Bank says El Niño could inflict a combined $10bn to $20bn for different African countries. “This El Niño developing against the backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures, provides governments and communities with a window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “The decisions we make today will shape the impacts we experience tomorrow.”
Measuring El Niño
The US-based National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) uses satellite data to measure the temperature differences in a specific region of the Pacific Ocean and compares it to previous average temperatures to find anomalies where current temperatures are much higher (El Niño) or lower (La Niña) than average. The latest data from NOAA shows anomalies close to 1 degrees Centigrade (°C) showing up since July 2026, which indicates a strong El Niño if the current warming trend continues.
