Dollar steady as inflation data boosts June rate cut bets

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The dollar was broadly steady on Monday as data showing easing US prices bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in June.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% in February, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday, compared with the 0.4% rise that economists polled by Reuters had forecast.

The report also showed consumer spending rising by the most in just over a year last month, underscoring the economy’s resilience.

Most markets across the globe were closed on Friday, with European markets closed on Monday as well.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said the latest US inflation data was “along the lines of what we would like to see,” in comments that tallied with his remarks after the Fed’s policy meeting last month.

“The Fed’s willingness to tolerate inflation well above 2% while still considering rate cuts is supporting risk assets,” said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief economist at the Bank of Singapore.

Markets are now pricing in 68.5% chance of the Fed cutting rates in June versus 57% chance at the end of last week, the CME Fed Watch tool showed. Traders are also pricing in 75 basis points of cuts this year.