ANALYSIS | ‘The real FIFA World Cup has just started’

Now that all formalities, greetings and messages of support or the group stage in short, have been done. All credentials have been checked and found in order. It is all protocols observed, the World Cup may begin.

As in 2010, it begins without the host nation Qatar, who lost all three matches in the first round, and only managed to score one goal against Senegal.

The first round that ended on Friday, was the conclusion of the preliminary round of the real competition. As of Saturday, the 2022 FIFA World Cup got in motion.

Unlike in the previous round where teams would lose a game and still play another match, any team that loses a match now, loses their place as well and will not be seen further in this edition in Qatar.

We saw some surprise results, but that was always going to be expected because of so many “firsts”, that we mentioned in the preview of this particular edition. We saw some giants losing to “minnows”. However, as it has always happened, after all that initial storm and unexpected results, the expected nations progressed to the next round. It is interesting that, except for Australia, all nations that progressed to the round of 16, have been there before. While the first round started with “surprise” results, it is back to “normal” with round of 16 fixtures.

The real surprise was to see Germany, for the second time in a row, should we say, being eliminated in the first round. The same outcome befell them in Russia where they had gone as the defending champions, which had become the “norm”, for all defending champions since the turn of the century. Brazil, was the only exception. Brazil have now been joined by France, who, incidentally, were the first to start this “practice” , coming to the 2002 edition as defending champions only to be eliminated in the first round. This time, France as defending champions, have progressed to the round of 16.

If the German elimination was a surprise, then Belgium was even more of a surprise. They came to this world cup, ranked 2^nd in the world, sandwiched between Brazil and Argentina, who are 1^st and 3^rd, respectively. They were eliminated on goal difference, against Croatia.

If anything, one of the most interesting things was to see teams going to the last matches with a chance to make it through. In groups such as E, F, G, all teams could have qualified going into the last matches.

It was pleasantly surprising to see teams playing (as starters) teenagers. While there are many, Spain stands out as they consistently played those young players, as if to say they are preparing for the next edition, yet they have qualified to the round of 16, and are looking as strong as any the team. With a squad average of 25,6 years, they seem to be the youngest team in the round of 16, with both Ghana and USA, who had younger squads having been eliminated. In their last game, which they needed to at least draw to progress, they played three teenagers (Gavi-18, Pedri-19 and balde-19) and Williams-20. This is not what we have seen at this level before. The fact that there were nations with even a lower average, says a lot about preparing for the future, for these nations.

It is worth noting that some of the surprise results in the last group matches, came about as a result of teams that had already qualified, changing their line-ups and fielding their less stronger line-ups. This, their coaches would have done for many different reasons. However one reason that stands out is the fact that at this stage of the season (which applies to most players), it is advisable not to overload players physically. Most of these players would have played in excess of 65 competitive matches, by the end of May 2023.

By not playing their regular line-ups, those teams lacked rhythm. As they were facing the opponent that was fighting for their dear life, the results could only be in the favour of those who had “everything to play for.”

France-Tunisia (0-1), Portugal-South Korea (1-2) and Brazil-Cameroon (0-1).

CAF made some progress compared to the last edition, where none of the five teams progressed to the round of 16. However, there should be at least, one team going past the round of 8, which is still a hurdle that African teams have never cleared.

Senegal and Morocco, are in the round of 16, as they face England and Spain, respectively.

The other three, Cameroon, Ghana and Tunisia did not make it past the first round.

Asia has made huge strides having three (Australia, Japan, South Korea) of their six representatives, progress to the round of 16. Iran, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, faltered at the first hurdle.

CONCACAF had three teams (Costa Rica, Mexico and USA). Only the latter, with the second youngest team, made it to the round of 16. Mexico missed it by one goal.

With four teams from CONMEBOL, the usual suspects made it through, Argentina and Brazil. Uruguay missed out by one goal, just as Ecuador would have made it had they scored one more goal and got one point.

UEFA had 13 nations and only seven made it. From these, two will be eliminated as they face each other.

For a long time, the round of 16 is spread across all FIFA Confederations.

Two matches will see CONMEBOL facing AFC (Argentina-Australia and Brazil-South Korea).

Only two matches guarantee the UEFA nations (France-Poland and Switzerland-Portugal). The others are up for grabs.

For some teams, it was very fine margins that determined whether they would progress.

Technique, creativity, individual tactics, especially ball possession, have come to stand out. The field is getting smaller and more challenging for players who are not ahead of the action. With the smaller field, there is little room for long and especially high balls. Teams that do not have a clear playing philosophy are getting eliminated. Those that survived the first hurdle, are unlikely to survive the second one.

Again a stand-out player is very much the decider. While the whole team has to be at their best, this one ‘star player’, has to come up with solutions especially when thing do not look to be in their favour.

This could partly, explain why the Germans are faltering the way they do.

The expected teams in the round of 8 are

Netherlands vs Argentina

Croatia vs Brazil

England vs France, and

Spain vs Portugal.

It is almost certain that he World Cup will have one of the seven names already engraved in it, even this time around.

It looks likely by the day that this cup after 20 years is going south rather than north from the Gulf.

By Ziphozonke Dlangalala