Drier conditions and an increased risk of drought across the southern part of the region, particularly in South Africa and southern and central Mozambique, are expected to persist due to the weather pattern known as El Niño.
The World Meteorological Organisation warns that the conditions could increase risks to agriculture, water resources, food security and livelihoods.
South Africa’s Cabinet has received a report on the potential impact of El Niño and is considering measures to mitigate the associated risks.
The El Nino projections are quite grim. It is expected to affect temperatures, rainfall and tropical cyclone patterns, impacting climate-sensitive sectors.
Super El Niño
Wits University climatologist Professor Francois Engelbrecht says, “This is certainly going to be the strongest El Niño event ever recorded. Measurements go back to 1850, so this will be a super El Niño.
“We define a super El Niño by sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean of two degrees Celsius or higher. These temperatures are already three degrees Celsius, which means the ocean is already three degrees Celsius warmer than it is supposed to be in that critical part of the Pacific Ocean.
“So, this will certainly be a super El Niño. The big question now, of course, is what the effects are going to be across the world, including here in Southern Africa. It’s mostly well known that El Niño events bring below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures,” Engelbrecht explains.
Agricultural sector
South Africa’s government says it is prioritising the issue. Minister in the Presidency, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni says, “The anticipated El Niño conditions pose heightened risks to water resource availability and municipal water security, particularly in areas already experiencing constrained supply or elevated demand.
“However, if the El Niño conditions materialise, it would have severe consequences for the agricultural sector in terms of drought preparedness and food production, which will impact food security.
Ntshavheni adds, “We are aware that South Africans are already experiencing a high cost of living. Cabinet has discussed an intervention plan, and the President will put together an interministerial committee that will focus on the response.”
AgriSA
The agricultural sector is also keeping a close eye on these developments. Chief Operating Officer at AgriSA, Jolanda Andrag says, “From the AgriSA perspective, the message to the value chain is to remain vigilant. The South African Weather Service points to a warmer, drier season across much of the country as El Niño develops. This raises real risks for crop yields, grazing, water availability and farm finances.
“But a seasonal forecast does not confirm a drought, and its impact will vary by region. The latest Crop Estimates Committee estimate puts the 2024/25 maize crop at 17.5 million tonnes. That, alongside good soil moisture, dam levels and grain stocks, gives South Africa a stronger starting position.
“But it tells us about the crops that have already been harvested. It cannot guarantee what is coming or what will be produced in the next season.”
Heatwaves
The question is, how should people cushion themselves?
Prof. Engelbrecht says, “Our biggest risk this summer, if you look at Gauteng to start with, is that these heatwaves are going to mostly affect people living in informal housing. I would say that’s the number one risk.
“We are currently also facing infrastructure issues in terms of water supply in Gauteng. Now, when you are living in informal housing and facing a heatwave for 10 to 14 days, it means maximum temperatures could reach 35 degrees Celsius, with some days rising above 40 degrees.
“If you face that kind of heat in informal housing and don’t have easy access to cooling water, this is literally a life-threatening situation.”
Experts have further warned that cyclone tracks are expected to shift southward, potentially reducing the risk of landfall in Madagascar and Mozambique.