By Rebone Tau
South Africa’s next Local Government Elections (LGE) are shaping up to be the toughest and most unpredictable since the first democratic local polls in 1995/96. The political environment has changed dramatically over the past three decades. Unlike in the past, when many voters remained loyal to political parties because of history, liberation credentials or long-standing party affiliation, today’s electorate is increasingly voting based on performance. South Africans want to see service delivery, accountable leadership and governments that can improve their daily lives. Where political parties fail to deliver, voters are increasingly willing to punish them at the ballot box.
The four biggest political parties from the 2024 national and provincial elections, namely the African National Congress (ANC), Democratic Alliance (DA), Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK Party), all enter these elections carrying political baggage.
Each party faces different challenges, but one thing is clear: none of them can assume that voters will automatically support them.
The political contest is becoming more competitive, and public trust has become one of the most valuable political assets. One of the defining features of these elections is likely to be the continued rise of hung municipalities.
Coalition governments, once regarded as unusual in South African politics, are now becoming the norm. As support for the major political parties continues to decline in many municipalities, more councils are likely to have no outright majority. This means political parties will increasingly have to negotiate, compromise and work together if they want to govern.
The challenge, however, is that many coalition governments have been unstable, leading to frequent changes in leadership, motions of no confidence and interruptions in service delivery.
Voters will therefore not only judge political parties on whether they can win elections, but also on whether they can govern responsibly in coalition arrangements.
Local government remains the most important test of any political party’s ability to govern. It is at the municipal level where citizens experience government every day. Communities judge government through the quality of roads, access to clean water, reliable electricity, refuse removal, functioning clinics, housing projects and public safety. When these services collapse, voters do not blame abstract institutions; they blame the political party governing the municipality. For this reason, local government elections are often a direct referendum on governance.
The ANC enters these elections under enormous pressure. Although the party has managed to retain several wards in recent by-elections, those victories should be interpreted carefully because by-elections generally attract a much lower voter turnout than national or local government elections. The ANC’s biggest challenge is rebuilding public confidence after years of declining electoral support. Many communities continue to associate the party with corruption, weak administration and poor service delivery. President Cyril Ramaphosa himself has previously acknowledged the damage that corruption has done to the ANC’s image.
Another challenge facing the ANC is the deployment of councillors. Across many municipalities, communities have repeatedly complained about councillors who are disconnected from the people they represent. Instead of focusing on service delivery, many have been accused of placing personal interests ahead of community needs. Whether these perceptions are fair or not, they continue to influence voter behaviour. If the ANC wants to regain lost support, it will need to convince voters that it has learned from its mistakes and is prepared to renew its leadership at the local government level.
The DA also enters these elections facing significant political questions. For years, the party has built its brand around good governance, clean administration and accountability. Those remain important strengths, particularly in municipalities where the DA has a track record of governing. However, recent public comments by former leader John Steenhuisen have created an uncomfortable political debate for the party. His remarks have raised questions about the DA’s role within the Government of National Unity, its approach to international engagement and the consistency of its political messaging. The responses from senior figures such as Tony Leon have further fuelled public debate. Whether voters ultimately agree or disagree with Steenhuisen is almost secondary. The bigger political challenge for the DA is that it has found itself defending internal issues instead of focusing on the failures of its political opponents. Elections are often decided by the issues dominating public discussion, and the DA would have preferred the campaign to centre on governance rather than controversy surrounding one of its former leaders.
The DA also has to contend with two potentially damaging recent developments. First, the Constitutional Court recently ruled that the Western Cape and the City of Cape Town, which are both DA-governed, have a constitutional obligation to provide affordable and well-located housing in the inner city as part of addressing apartheid-era spatial inequality. Second, the Public Protector has found that the City of Cape Town’s failure to provide basic services in Langa Flats and parts of Khayelitsha constituted maladministration. These two findings may reinforce perceptions that where it governs, the DA focuses more on affluent areas than townships and inner cities. This may have negative implications for it ahead of the elections.
The MK Party remains one of the most interesting developments in South African politics. In a relatively short period, it has established itself as a major political force, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal. However, rapid growth has also exposed organisational weaknesses. The party has experienced several changes in leadership positions, including multiple Secretary-General appointments, as well as changes to its parliamentary representatives. Stability matters in politics, especially in local government, where continuity is essential for long-term planning and service delivery. The recent reports surrounding former President Jacob Zuma’s visit to India, where he reportedly met one of the Gupta brothers, have once again placed the party under public scrutiny. Given the history of state capture and the Gupta family’s association with that period, political opponents are likely to use these developments to question the party’s judgment and credibility during the campaign.
The EFF also faces an important test. Since its formation, the party has positioned itself as a radical alternative to both the ANC and the DA. It has been effective at mobilising public attention on issues such as land reform, economic justice and inequality. The issue of illegal immigrants has been at the centre of local government elections, and the EFF has publicly been seen as a pro-illegal immigrants party pushing the Pan-African Agenda that is rejected by many South Africans on the ground.
Another important factor in these elections is the changing behaviour of South African voters. Younger voters have fewer historical attachments to political parties than previous generations. They are more likely to compare political parties based on delivery, transparency and leadership than on liberation history. Social media has also changed political campaigning by giving voters greater access to information and allowing political controversies to spread much faster than before. Political parties are now under constant public scrutiny, and every leadership dispute, governance failure or controversial statement can quickly influence public opinion.
Ultimately, these local government elections will not simply determine who controls municipalities. They will reveal whether South Africans still believe the country’s major political parties can improve their lives. Public trust has become the defining currency of democratic politics, and every party will have to compete for that trust.
The era of unconditional political loyalty appears to be coming to an end. Political parties can no longer rely on history, slogans or liberation credentials alone. They must earn support through competent governance, ethical leadership and measurable service delivery. Those who fail to do so should expect voters to hold them accountable. For that reason, South Africa’s next local government elections may well mark another turning point in the country’s democratic journey. The outcome will shape not only the future of municipalities but also the direction of national politics in the years ahead, going into 2029.
Rebone Tau is a political commentator and author of The Rise and Fall of the ANCYL. She is a Research Fellow at the Institute for Pan-African Thought & Conversation (IPATC) at the University of Johannesburg. She writes in her personal capacity.
