January 07, 2008, 17:45
After seven years of shying away from hands-on Middle East diplomacy, George W. Bush seems to have been bitten by the bug that led so many past US presidents into the quest for an elusive peace deal.
But Bush's goal of securing an Israeli-Palestinian accord by the end of 2008 - the focus of his first presidential visit to Israel and the West Bank later this week - faces long odds, not least because of doubts about his commitment.
For Bush, who had disdained Bill Clinton's failed peace effort in the twilight of his presidency, the underlying motive appears to be about using his waning months in office to shape a legacy not completely defined by the unpopular war in Iraq.
It also seems to reflect his acceptance of what many critics have long contended -- that only by tackling the region's most intractable conflict can he start restoring US credibility and also offset Iran's growing influence there.
"In Bush's thinking, it's like this: 'If I can solve it and Clinton couldn't and Carter couldn't and my dad couldn't, how wonderful that would be for my foreign policy legacy,'" said Shirley Anne Warshaw, a presidential scholar at Gettysburg College in Pennsylvania.
"Even if he fails, he figures he'll get credit for trying," she said.
Smiles, speeches, handshakes
The main thrust of Bush's January 8-16 Middle East trip will be to shore up a fragile peace process formally revived at an international conference he hosted in late November.
With Bush urging them on, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas pledged at Annapolis, Maryland, to try to forge a two-state agreement by the end of this year.
But it will take more than smiles, speeches and handshakes for Bush to succeed where so many of his predecessors failed.
Many analysts say that if Israelis and Palestinians are to resolve differences that have defied solution for decades, it will require direct, sustained presidential involvement to get the two sides to take the effort seriously.
Bush has made clear, however, that he has no intention of adopting what his administration once derided as Clinton's "shoot the moon" approach to Middle East peacemaking.
Though his trip is meant to show a personal commitment, he will find it hard to overcome scepticism in the region over whether he has the perseverance and evenhandedness to shepherd through a deal before leaving office next January.
"There's no sign he has any interest in mastering the details," said Jon Alterman, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Vague objectives, low expectations
Bush bristles at criticism that he has been detached.
"Not only have I been involved in the Middle Eastern peace process throughout my presidency, we have made great advancements in the vision of two states living side by side in peace," he told Reuters in an interview on Thursday.
But ahead of his trip, which starts in Jerusalem on Wednesday, Bush and his aides have been deliberately vague about objectives and have set expectations low, dampening talk of breakthroughs or even tangible advances.
There will be no imposing of deadlines or forcing of compromises in talks with Israeli and Palestinian leaders. In fact, he has no plans even for a three-way meeting with them.
Many analysts think tough negotiating tactics would be of little use anyway since Bush will be dealing with politically weak leaders capable of making good on few of their promises.
With Hamas Islamists controlling Gaza and Abbas effectively governing only the West Bank, it is doubtful he could make any deal stick. For his part, Olmert has seen his popularity sink since the 2006 Lebanon war, and his ruling coalition is shaky.
Still, Bush may have little to lose in pressing ahead, given his low approval ratings, due largely to the Iraq war. Even if the end-of-year target for a Middle East deal is missed, he can always say he seeded the way for his successor.
Until then, delving into Middle East diplomacy could help him stave off lame duck status as he sees his domestic agenda hobbled and attention diverted to the 2008 presidential race.
He is not the first exiting president to look overseas in hopes of staying relevant. "It's the 'get out of Washington' syndrome," Warshaw said. "They all do it eventually." - Reuters
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