Prices of South African coal cargoes are expected to average $81.30 a tonne during 2010, according to a survey of 12 coal producers, traders and end-users attending an industry event in Mumbai this week.

Delegates at the Coaltrans conference largely agreed that Asian demand would prevent prices from falling below current levels but was unlikely to be strong enough to push average prices up sharply.

Indian demand for coal imports topped 50 million tonnes in 2009. This fiscal year the shortfall between demand and supply, needing to be filled by imports, will rise to 81 million tonnes, importers said.

South Africa shipped around 30% of its coal just over 18 million tonnes to India in 2009. If February's export figures are not a fluke, the proportion could rise this year.

India and China together took 2.4 million tonnes of South Africa's 4.9 million February exports which is over 50%.

China's voracious hunger for coal imports is expected to put a floor under coal prices for all origins this year, analysts said last week.

South African shipments began 2010 fairly slowly because high prices dissuaded buyers from booking cargoes but tonnages are beginning to pick up now.

Demand for South African coal from buyers in India and China is likely to remain as strong or stronger than in 2009 as Asian buyers are taking more coal from distant origins. Many prize South African material for its consistent quality and the lack of vessel queues at Richards Bay. - Reuters