Analysts says Zuma will be the next ANC president

The National Prosecuting Authority will formally serve an indictment on Jacob Zuma

Political analysts say nothing will stop Jacob Zuma, the deputy African National Congress (ANC) president, from becoming the next president of the ruling ANC, and possibly the country, if he is acquitted of corruption.

"If he is found not guilty and if he is not tainted, he will be catapulted into the presidency," said Adam Habib, of the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC). "He will be unbeatable."

Aubrey Matshiqi, an independent analyst, said: "If Zuma is acquitted, not even a bullet will stop him."

ANC "crisis"
Addressing an Institute for Security Studies (ISS) seminar on the "crisis" in the ANC, both anticipated Zuma's so-called left-wing support base to be disappointed should he become the country's next leader. Zuma would face the same constraints on economic and social issues that President Thabo Mbeki did, said Habib.

Matshiqi said: "If a medical doctor were to examine Zuma, he would most probably not find a single left-wing bone in his body. He is a candidate of the left simply because he is not Mbeki."

Other candidates for the presidency are Tokyo Sexwale, Cyril Ramaphosa and Saki Macozoma, all businessmen, with "dark horses" Kgalema Motlanthe, the ANC secretary-general, and Joel Netshitenzhe, a government spokesperson, Matshiqi said.

The "nightmare scenario", he added, was that of a battle so fierce that Mbeki loyalists convinced him to run against Zuma for a third term as ANC president.

No future doubt
Steven Friedman, an analyst from the Centre for Policy Studies, says he doubts the future of South Africa depends on who wins the battle. He rejected assertions that the country would become a "banana republic" under Zuma or a dictatorship under Mbeki. The current governance style could quite possibly remain unchanged, whoever won.

Among the so-called "new elite", he added, problems with Zuma are not necessarily about his politics or the company he keeps, but with him being considered "an fellow who did not go to the right universities or read the right books". - Sapa