The announcement came as Zimbabwe's military and security chiefs said they would refuse to recognise victory by anyone other than Mugabe.

Mugabe has said Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai, who will challenge him in the election, did not fight in the liberation wars and has called him a traitor.

Reactions:
MDC : An MDC spokesman called the military's statement a "preemptive military coup", negating the voices of 13-million Zimbabweans even before they had a chance to vote.

South Africa: The South African government said it noted with concern reported statements by the Zimbabwe military that it might not accept the outcome of the forthcoming Zimbabwe elections to be held in March.

Commonwealth : Commonwealth countries are stepping up their pressure on Mugabe ahead of  the presidential elections.  Australia's Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said he would push for Zimbabwe's suspension from the Commonwealth at the heads of government meeting in Brisbane in March. And New Zealand also called for the Commonwealth to freeze Zimbabwe's membership. The UK has already warned that it may push for Zimbabwe's expulsion from the body.

SADC:  The summit of the Southern African Development Community  said in a final statement on 14 January it "welcomed the assurances by President Mugabe that the forthcoming presidential elections scheduled for March 9-10, 2002 will be free and fair."  It also praised actions Mugabe said Zimbabwe would take, including respecting freedoms of speech and assembly, allowing a wide range of international observers, and investigating political violence. 

The statement's sole note of concern was over a warning by Zimbabwe's army that it would only back Mugabe in the elections. The communique made no mention of two laws that Mugabe forced through parliament in mid-January -- one to disenfranchise at least one million Zimbabweans living abroad while banning independent election monitors, and another giving police broad powers to punish critics of the government and break up political meetings.

EU : The EU meeting on 11 January  insisted on two "immediate actions" -- "the invitation and accreditation of international election observers, including from the EU," and "full access to national and international media."  It said its foreign ministers would review the situation at their next meeting in Brussels on January 28-29.

Regional dimensions: possible response and impact
As the March presidential election draws nearer, and state violence, intimidation and rigging intensify, action by South Africa and its SADC partners becomes more urgent. Zimbabwes neighbours have a major opportunity to respond more forcefully to the growing crisis at a Summit in Malawi on 13-14 January 2002 and its aftermath. 

Nelson Mandela came to the presidency in South Africa proclaiming, human rights will be the light that guides our foreign policy. His successor, Thabo Mbeki, called for an African Renaissance and an end to the dictatorships that have disfigured the continents political landscape. Their principles have been severely tested in the context of the regional response to the deteriorating situation in Zimbabwe.

The quiet diplomacy pursued by South Africa and SADC for the past eighteen months has failed to influence President Mugabes government while the region has been tarred with an image of violence, instability and abandonment of the rule of law.

The economic and political turmoil in South Africas northern neighbour threatens the credibility of the embryonic New Partnership for African Development (Nepad), an agenda for renewal crafted by Mbeki, Nigerias President Obasanjo, Algerias President Bouteflika, and Senegals President Wade, among others as a vehicle for a new relationship between Africa and the world. While Nepad seeks to promote Africas full integration into the world economy, the Zimbabwe crisis is further marginalising the continent, producing a decline in investment, confidence in local currencies, and tourism. The regional southern African economy is threatened further by an influx of refugees from Zimbabwe.

President Mugabes policies contradict still tentative trends elsewhere in southern Africa toward political and economic liberalisation. Though not without major difficulty and controversy, there is slow and painful movement toward democracy in the region. South Africas post-apartheid democratic transformation  including President Mandelas voluntary retirement in 1999  has been a beacon for societies struggling for freedom around the world.

Zambias President Chiluba allowed elections to proceed without him in late December 2001 after a decade in office. Presidents dos Santos of Angola, Nujoma of Namibia, Muluzi of Malawi, and Chissano of Mozambique have all indicated that they will respect constitutional limits and not stand for re-election.

In contrast, Zimbabwes ruling party, Zanu-PF, is answering the charge that it is not upholding the rule of law by creating new, more partisan laws to which it will adhere. One Zimbabwean legal expert said: These laws represent a fundamental assault on the rule of law. In South Africa, apartheid was supported by an edifice of laws that contravened basic rights. In Zimbabwe, there are no longer checks and balances now that the Supreme Court is making decisions based on support for the government rather than on whether the laws are constitutional.

Crushing all forms of opposition
The regime is also emasculating the pillars of independent opposition: media, civil society organisations, student groups, labour and any other constituency from which Zanu-PF might conceivably face a challenge. No critical public meeting, statement or action can occur without facing at least harassment. Under government-sponsored legislation, labour will not be allowed to strike or demonstrate. Universities are expelling students identified as activists. Zanu-PF has analysed the civil society tactics used elsewhere in pro-democracy struggles and is systematically outlawing all of them. Moreover, the governments measures appear to have a reach beyond the spring 2002 elections. 

They indicate a ruling party mentality that is digging in for a marathon, not trying simply to win a short sprint. Beyond Zimbabwes borders, the dominant trend in southern Africa is toward greater respect for constitutions and the rule of law. Institutions  governmental and non-governmental  that can strengthen democracy are gaining maturity throughout the region. Though the parties that assumed power at independence remain dominant, the growth of civil society and opposition parties ensures greater respect for democratic processes and norms.

 Economic reform efforts have become central to most southern African governments. Beyond any policy difference, however, argues a South African academic, the so-called Zimbabwe Crisis is essentially the failure of a kleptocratic elite to respond constructively to a generalised economic crisis. It is, in other words, a reflection of the atrophy within the ruling Zanu-PF. Nepad commits African leaders to self-police their continent to maintain good governance and responsible economic policies but Zimbabwe is the high profile exception that could undermine the initiatives credibility in its infancy.

SADC is the international body with the most potential direct influence over its troubled member, on whose difficulties its mid-January 2002 summit in Malawi will focus. SADC policy is at a crossroads. Either member states can continue sending mixed signals to Mugabe veering from strong public criticism to solidarity, or they can set minimum conditions for the spring election based on SADCs own standards and use their leverage to enforce them. The decision could make the difference three months from now between a reforming Zimbabwe and a chaotic one. This will not necessarily be the regions last chance to avert disaster but it could be its best.