Introduction
As with the two previous
elections, the Western Cape is again poised to be one of the mostly highly
contested Provinces, apart from perhaps Kwazulu-Natal where there will be
a fierce race between the ANC and the IFP. The race in the Western Cape
is however more intriguing because it includes at least three main
contenders, i.e. The ANC, DA and NNP. In total, no less than 19 parties
will contest the elections in the Western Cape. At least seven out of the
nineteen will contest elections in the Province for the first time.
Of particular interest
would be the performance of the Independent Democrats (ID) and the New
Labour Party since, although they are new parties, both of them are lead
by seasoned politicians and campaigners and held high-ranking positions in
their former parties, the PAC and NNP respectively.
The changing
political landscape in the Western Cape province
The political landscape
in the Western Cape has been characterised by continual change, informed
by party squabbles, leadership changes and coalition formations. In 1999
the ANC obtained 42, 07% of the Provincial vote, the biggest improvement
by the party in any province. The ANC was followed by the NNP who got 38,
39% of the vote and the DP with the third highest vote coming in at 11,
91%. Despite the ANC’ s victory, it was unable to assume power as the NNP,
DA and ACDP formed a coalition leaving the ANC with no representation on
the provincial cabinet.
These events should be
seen in the context of what preceded it. In 1997 the Western Cape became
the first Province to adopt a separate provincial constitution. In January
1998 Kriel, then Premier of the Western Cape used his new powers under the
constitution to bring on board, Hennie Bester into his cabinet, thereby
giving the ANC a reduced role. The ANC refused to accept this reduced role
in Kriel’s cabinet and walked out in protest, leaving the NNP with two
smaller coalition partners, the DP and ACDP.
However, since 1999, the
NNP support in the Province has been significantly reduced. Martinus Van
Schalkwyk is continually charged with not having the same gravitas as FW
de Klerk to lead the party. This, commentators argued, is proved by the
results of the 1999 elections when the DP overtook the NNP as the official
opposition in the National Assembly. The NNP support was now mostly
confined to the Western Cape, bolstered by the support of the Coloured
community.
Prognosis for April
14, 2004
The race for the Western
Cape as during the last election in 1999, will be tightly contested by
three major parties, namely the ANC, DA and NNP. These three parties
represent the core constituencies and interests of the Western Cape
electorate. From a policy perspective, they are also the most articulate,
leaving smaller parties with very little space to swing the vote.
Having received the
majority of the vote in the 1999 Provincial election, the ANC would hope
to consolidate its position. It is hoping for that elusive outright
majority to avoid all the tricky challenges posed by coalition formation.
Indeed, the party has already indicated that it could govern on its own
should it have an outright victory at the polls. This obviously leaves the
NNP in a very precarious position since they are emphasising the
continuation of an ANC/NNP partnership after the elections.
Naledi Pandor, ANC
member and current Chairperson of the NCOP suggests that the key challenge
for the ANC is to make sure its supporters go and vote on elections day as
the party would benefit from a high voter turnout especially since black
African component of the electorate has increased to 26% from 14% ten
years ago. Conversely, the White component of the Western Cape electorate
has decreased from 27% to 15% in 1994. Should this not happen, an
extension of the ANC/NNP duo remains a possibility.
The NNP on the other
hand would be keen to prove that its partnership with ANC in the Province
has indeed worked, providing stability and improving government
performance and service delivery. However, as indicated earlier, the party
has lost significant political capital through the introduction floor
crossing legislation with many of its members crossing over the DA.
Despite claiming to be the most cosmopolitan party, the NNP has not made
enough inroads into the African community in order to pose a serious
enough challenge to the ANC.
The same challenge
applies to the DA. It is yet to be seen if the party can equal or improve
on its performance during the 1999 elections where it increased the number
of seats in almost all of the elections contested. Like the NNP however,
the DA is still viewed as white middle class party representing the
interest of big business only. Furthermore, its provincial leader Theunis
Botha has no public profile and recent utterances made by him, have
already caused him problems in the Black community. However, the DA does
have very sophisticated election machinery and is poised to give the ANC
and NNP a run for their money.
Then of course there are
the interesting challenges posed by the recently formed Independent
Democrats (ID) and New Labour Party under the national leadership of
Patricia de Lille and Peter Marais respectively. These two firebrands are
seasoned politicians and campaigners and is hoping that the support they
enjoyed at their previous parties would translate in votes for their new
parties. The NNP would be especially wary of the potential of the ID and
NLP to draw from their voter base since the ID made it clear that it is
predominantly a Coloured party and Patricia de Lille’s seems to have
struck a cord with working class women in the Western Cape. A major draw
back for the ID in the Western Cape is of course the low profile of its
Western Cape leader, Lennit Max, former police commissioner in the Western
Cape. It is anticipated that Max do not have enough experience to compete
with seasoned campaigners such as Rasool, Van Schalkwyk and Marais.
Furthermore, unlike the NLP, the ID has decided to contest nationally
therefore spreading its resources very thinly. The NLP on the other hand
have decided to pool its resources and to compete in the Western Cape
only.
To complicate matters
for the electorate further, there is an array of smaller parties who plan
to make their mark on the Provincial elections. The ACP and UDM remain in
contention but are they able to increase their support and move beyond the
one seat they each have in the Provincial legislature? Would former
liberation movements such as the PAC and AZAPO muster enough votes to
secure representation in the provincial legislature for the first time?
Can the IFP for the first time in its history establish a presence in the
Western Cape? Will parties like the AEB, VF Plus and Nasionale Aksie this
time around provide a political home for their Afrikaner constituency?
These are but some of
the vexing issues facing the electorate in the
Western Cape Province when they go to the polls to cast their vote on
April 14th, 2004.
