Elections 2004

The Issues

Predicting the outcome of Elections 2004[1]

by Judith February, Jonathan Faull, and Lorato Banda -  Idasa 

In KwaZulu Natal (KZN), floor-crossing has significantly altered the political landscape, strengthening the ANC’s hand at the expense of the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP).  This province, ruled in coalition with the ANC with an IFP Premier since 1994, did not transfer to the ANC through floor-crossing.  The ANC-IFP coalition government has survived, but in a substantively fractured form.  The IFP has been “forced” through necessity of political survival (in the words of their leader) into an “Alliance of Hope” with the DA.  Infighting and personality clashes within the ANC-IFP coalition government have reflected badly on the IFP, especially on their leadership which has appeared at times paranoid and willing to shoot from the hip for the sake of expediency, to the benefit of the ANC.  The ANC did not take the province outright, but they are in the political ascendancy. 

The DA in KZN, through the “Coalition of Hope” are now fighting way above their weight, relative to their representation, and will gain significant political capital as a consequence of their new-found “King-making” role.  The then DP, used a similar platform in the Western Cape.[2]  It remains, however, to be seen to what extent their pandering to the institutions of traditional leadership will damage their credibility with a core liberal constituency traditionally deeply distrustful of the amakhosi which they perceive as hierarchical, patriarchal, gendered, corrupt and deeply undemocratic.  Belinda Scott walked out of the DA and crossed the floor to the ANC sighting the DA embrace of the IFP and traditional leadership as an untenable stoop to expediency at the expense of liberal principles.

At a National Level, the ANC attracted floor-crossers from a range of parties, strengthening their position in the house, and pushing their representation above the perceived key level of a two-thirds majority.  The DA, for whom the exercise was invented, increased their representation with the defection of 8 MPs to their ranks, consolidating their position as the Official Opposition in the National Assembly.  But considering the lofty aims and claims of the DA in its early days, this performance - the survival of the NNP and the loss of both the Western Cape and Cape Town to ANC-led coalitions – dented the long march of this opposition project.  Floor-crossing and the transformation of the DP into the DA have instilled significant divisions within the DA support base and their representatives.  The current campaign, its bravura and confidence, help to disguise a party somewhat at odds with itself.  The DA of this election is in many respects a very different incarnation of the slick, sophisticated and strident party that wooed opposition voters through the Fight Back campaign.

Five new parties were formed during the floor-crossing period.